Chapter 90

New book, seeking recommendations, seeking collections, seeking Three Rivers votes, third update of the day, one more update tonight.

With a snap, Zhu Jishi gently placed Marx's manuscript of "The History of the Opium Trade" on the desk, his face slightly pale. He did not go to the headquarters of Jishi & Co. on Vincent Street today but instead read Marx's work in the study of the Maria Villa.

As a doctor from the future, Zhu Jishi was well aware of the dangers of drugs. He could write a thick book on the subject, explaining the harm of drugs from both physiological and psychological perspectives. However, Marx's "The History of the Opium Trade" still made him see things in a new light, as the book's focus was on the economy and society—opium, as a drug, was corrupting China's economy and society, not just its opium users.

To put it bluntly, if all 4 to 10 million opium users in China were to die from their addiction, how much damage would it really do to a country with a population of 400 million?

Therefore, the current harm of opium to China lies not in the health of its citizens but in the economy and society. The outflow of millions of taels of silver each year, sustained over a decade, has already begun to show its effects. The massive outflow of silver has caused severe deflation in China. Since the taxes and rents of Chinese farmers have already been monetized, the result of deflation is a continuous increase in their burden, eventually leading to large-scale peasant uprisings!

Moreover, the cost of long-term opium use is not something ordinary Chinese people can afford, so opium users are inevitably from the middle and upper classes of Chinese society—Marx attributed this to the complete corruption of China's elite class. Opium is openly sold in European countries, and there are also opium addicts, but few social elites are addicted to opium. However, information from the East shows that in China, opium seems to be the favorite of the nobility and officials, a situation that is indeed bizarre. Marx believed that opium would accelerate the corruption and decline of China's elite class, greatly increasing the possibility of internal unrest and making it easier for imperialists to further invade China. Without a strong elite class to lead, China's reforms would also be difficult to achieve good results.

However, the most worrying prospect for Zhu Jishi is that China might succumb to British pressure and legalize the opium trade in the future!

In "The History of the Opium Trade," Marx wrote: "… When opium use becomes a custom among the upper class in China, this custom will spread to the lower classes. However, the high price of opium, due to the Chinese government's anti-opium policies, has actually protected the majority of the Chinese people from the harm of opium. If one day the Chinese government, under pressure, lifts the ban on opium, opium will not only flow in unimpeded from the sea but will also be grown on Chinese soil. This is entirely in line with economic principles. Since the returns from growing opium are much higher than those from growing food, why shouldn't Chinese farmers grow opium in large quantities? The result will be two-fold: first, the East India Company's lucrative opium business will become a fond memory, as opium from India will not be able to compete with locally grown opium; second, the number of opium users in China will explode, increasing from 10 million to 100 million! At that time, opium will severely damage China's productivity, causing the decline and depression of industry, commerce, and even agriculture, and further weakening China's ability to resist foreign aggression."

Of course, the Chinese government could still ban the cultivation of opium domestically while allowing the British to sell opium without restraint. The result would be an accelerated outflow of silver, further increasing the burden on Chinese farmers. Additionally, the large outflow of silver from China would cause the price of silver on the international market to fall. This would devalue China's social wealth and significantly weaken China's financial strength, seriously hindering its modernization process.

In "The History of the Opium Trade," Marx also specifically analyzed the issue of the falling price of silver, writing: "For centuries, China has been a trade surplus country, accumulating a huge amount of silver. Most of the silver obtained by Europeans from South America has flowed into China, with an estimated total of 2 to 3 billion ounces, or 7 to 10 billion pounds, a vast fortune. If China were to reform and implement an industrial revolution in the future, it could use part of this silver to purchase machinery and industrial raw materials from Western countries and hire Western engineering and technical personnel. Compared to the impoverished Ottoman Empire and Egypt, this is a favorable condition for China's reform.

The Chinese are not short of money! At least, that's how it looks now. They can quickly buy modernization, although the true essence cannot be bought, it would be enough to give them the strength to resist Western aggression. However, if the value of silver were to fall by two-thirds, what would happen? Their centuries of savings, converted into pounds, would be reduced to 200 to 300 million. The cost of introducing science and technology and industry from the West, calculated in silver, would triple, posing a severe challenge to their financial strength…"

If Zhu Jishi were a history master's student, his face would probably be even more grim, because all of Marx's predictions in "The History of the Opium Trade" came true in the following decades! And the actual situation was even worse! The Qing Dynasty suffered repeated defeats in the following decades, accumulating huge reparations and foreign debts, most of which were linked to gold! The continuous devaluation of silver meant an increase in foreign debt. By 1928, when the reactionary Nationalist government took power, the customs revenue used as collateral for foreign loans and reparations was no longer sufficient to cover the annual payments. This led to the bankruptcy of China's international credit, making it extremely difficult for the Nationalists to borrow foreign loans. Without foreign loans, and with customs revenue, the most important source of income for the central government, being used entirely for debt repayment, the financial strength of the reactionary Nationalist government naturally fell into a state of depletion.

...

At this moment, in Buckingham Palace, the same logic was being eloquently explained by William Jardine, who had lived in Guangzhou for twenty years.

"… The opium trade is not ordinary trade, nor is it a dishonorable smuggling activity for the British Empire, but an economic war! A war to strangle the potential competitor in its infancy! China, with its 400 million population, immense wealth, and a highly authoritative central government, could become the greatest threat to the British Empire's interests in the East with just a little reform! Opium is the best tool to eliminate this threat. The Empire should make the legalization of the opium trade a national policy and use any means necessary to force the Chinese government to accept it!"

"I never realized the opium trade had such an effect," Prince Albert said, suddenly enlightened, but then became serious. "But how can we force China to accept the legalization of the opium trade? Mr. Jardine, according to your analysis, the legalization of the opium trade will accelerate the collapse of the Qing Dynasty's rule. I imagine the Chinese will do everything they can to resist. Do we have to start another war?"

He turned to Robert Peel and the Duke of Wellington.

Robert Peel shook his head. "Your Highness, the situation in Europe is unstable. There are signs of revolution in France and Germany, and Russia is seeking to expand into the Balkan Peninsula. The situation at home is also unstable. We cannot afford to fight another large-scale, long-lasting war with China at this time."

The Duke of Wellington nodded. "After the death of the Sikh Emperor Ranjit Singh, the domestic political situation is turbulent. Now is the best time to launch a campaign against the Sikh Empire and finally conquer India."

"No, we don't need a war," William Jardine said, his face showing a slight disappointment, but he quickly regained his composure. "We can support anti-Qing forces within China, causing internal strife, and then use the anti-Qing forces we support to force the Qing government to make key concessions on the issue of opium legalization."

---

---

---