Chapter 4 of 10
Chapter 4
8 min read1,971 words
A blackboard with the Chinese characters for "spot" (現物) and "futures" (先物) written on it. In front of it, a lecturer is passionately delivering a lecture.
"Alright, everyone! What is futures trading?"
"I don't know."
"To understand futures, you first need to understand spot! Now, look at the blackboard. What do you see?"
"Chinese characters."
"Right. You should see the characters for 'spot' (現物) and 'futures' (先物). What's the difference between the two?"
"The first character is different."
"Yes, that's right! The '現' in spot is the character for 'now,' and the '先' in futures is the character for 'first'! In other words, spot refers to goods that are contracted and delivered 'now,' while futures refer to goods that are contracted 'first' and delivered 'later'! Do you understand?"
"Teacher! I don't understand what it means to contract and deliver."
"It's simple. Let's say you start futures trading with 2x leverage. If the margin is 1 million won, with 2x leverage, you would 'first' borrow 1 million won, right? So, the moment you borrow money and buy the product, the 'contract' for futures trading is 'concluded'!"
"Oh! So, selling the product you bought and paying back the 1 million won 'later' is 'fulfilling the contract'!"
"Exactly!"
...
Jungwoo, who was watching a YouTube lecture to understand futures trading, shook his head.
"What is this?"
He had felt the same way when he started trading stocks, but leverage and futures were hard to understand no matter how many times he looked at them. Or rather, he couldn't understand them precisely.
Of course, he had a rough idea of the core concepts.
"Anyway, with futures trading, you can use leverage, right?"
In other words, a cryptocurrency futures exchange was exactly what Jungwoo had been looking for.
Finding the answer, he immediately signed up for a cryptocurrency futures exchange.
As a test, he transferred a small amount of cryptocurrency and practiced trading to learn how to use leverage.
In the process, he discovered an amazing fact about cryptocurrency futures trading.
"... Seriously, you can leverage up to 100x?"
100x leverage. That means if the price goes up by just 1%, you can achieve a 100% return.
'Conversely, if it drops by 1%, you lose all your principal.'
Your funds would be liquidated.
In short, using 100x leverage is no different from a speculative market. It's like a coin toss with the market fluctuating up and down.
Therefore, in the regulated stock market with various regulations and safety measures, this is unthinkable. Even CFD (Contract for Difference) products, which allow high leverage, are difficult for ordinary investors to access because they require professional investor qualifications. The same goes for credit derivatives like TRS (Total Return Swap). Even futures and options, which are relatively accessible, have strict conditions such as pre-training and simulated trading.
Ultimately, the only place where you can easily use high leverage without any restrictions is the cryptocurrency market, which has no specific regulations or laws. In other words, the cryptocurrency market is like a lawless jungle.
But precisely because of this, Jungwoo saw an opportunity.
'I was planning to use about 3x leverage on 30 million won to manage 100 million won... but this changes everything.'
100x leverage is too risky, but what if he used 10x leverage?
He could achieve the same returns as managing 300 million won with 30 million won.
In other words, he could maximize his profits.
With a pounding heart, Jungwoo calmly calculated the maximum leverage he could use.
'Assuming Ethereum is currently at $8 but could drop to a minimum of $7, if I set the liquidation price... I can probably leverage up to 10x.'
Calculating with $7 as the bottom line, the maximum leverage he could use was 10x. Any more, and the liquidation price would be too close to the current price, making it highly risky if the price dropped slightly.
Even 10x leverage was risky, with a liquidation price of $7.2. In other words, if the price dropped 10% from $8, he would lose all his principal.
'Clearly, it's risky.'
Having experienced the stock market, Jungwoo knew how volatile prices could be. A stock that rises 100% doesn't do so in one go without any fluctuations. It goes up and down in small increments, gradually reaching new highs.
Let alone cryptocurrencies, which are known to be even more volatile.
Just because Ethereum was $8 and could reach $1,400 in a year doesn't mean it won't drop to $1 first.
"But I'm different."
Faintly, but he clearly remembered the number.
The lowest price of Ethereum on January 1, 2017.
'... $7.48.'
In the chart shown by the memory, the number 7.48 was precisely at the tail of a bearish candle.
In other words, the lowest price was $7.48.
'If I really have regressed, that is.'
While the future might not unfold exactly as he experienced due to parallel universes or other factors, Jungwoo's instinct told him that the price trend would follow his memory.
'Even if it doesn't go exactly as I remember, it doesn't matter.'
Even if he failed in cryptocurrency trading, his mind was still filled with valuable information.
Using this information, he could live a different life from his previous one.
Thinking this, he felt at ease.
Jungwoo boldly proceeded with his investment.
First, he transferred all his cryptocurrency from a domestic exchange to an overseas futures exchange, the one with the highest trading volume and highest credibility. Once transferred, his balance of 30 million won was displayed as $28,000. Jungwoo invested all of it in Ethereum, cautiously buying at the $8 price with 2x leverage.
──────────
──────────
His current position was as follows:
He bought 7,000 Ethereum at an entry price of $8, and the current market price was $8.09, a 1% increase. With 2x leverage, his current return was 2%, and his seed money had increased by over $500 in just a few seconds.
The liquidation price was $4. If the price of Ethereum dropped to $4, he would lose all his principal.
But he wasn't worried because he knew the future. In fact, his current investment was very conservative and stable compared to what he knew. He was carefully handling the weapon of his knowledge of the future.
'If it doesn't drop to $7.48 and suddenly rises, I'll buy all my assets at the resistance level.'
After setting up his strategic buys, there was nothing left for Jungwoo to do.
Now, all he had to do was wait.
But the market didn't cooperate.
As if his buy order was a signal, the price of Ethereum started to plummet.
...
Suddenly, the chart started to fluctuate, and the price of Ethereum kept dropping.
In an instant, it dropped by 2%, or 4% with 2x leverage.
But the drop was just beginning.
...
The chart plummeted as if some major negative news had broken, drawing a vertical line downward. A long red candlestick decorated the black chart, and his buy orders were filled. Seeing the sharp drop, Jungwoo quickly rechecked his position.
──────────
──────────
His buy orders at $7.9, $7.8, $7.7, and $7.6 with 2x leverage were filled, changing his average purchase price to $7.8, and his leverage increased to 10x.
However, due to the increased leverage, his loss rate also increased exponentially. Despite the market price dropping by only 1.9%, Jungwoo's position with 10x leverage was down -19%.
'Just the beginning.'
He placed buy orders at $7.55 to $7.49, using all the leverage he could.
If the price dropped to $7.48 as he remembered, all his buy orders would be filled, and he would have a 100x leverage position.
If it dropped even 0.01% more, he would be liquidated, but if the lowest point was correct, Jungwoo would achieve an incredible return.
'I've done all I can.'
Now, all he had to do was wait.
But constantly checking the chart made him anxious, so he closed the exchange site. Or rather, he was about to close it when:
Beep beep beep.
The doorbell rang, and the front door burst open.
"Bro, I'm here... Huh?"
An Ye-seul, who had just finished a date (?), entered the living room. In fact, she had arrived 30 minutes earlier but had wandered around the park for over 30 minutes in the cold to get rid of the shampoo scent, fearing her visit to a hotel would be discovered.
But upon entering the newlywed home, she was shocked to see an empty living room with no furniture.
"Bro, what's going on...?"
"I don't know."
"Where's the TV and the sofa? The air conditioner? The dining table!"
"I sold them."
"... What?"
"I sold them."
An Ye-seul looked bewildered, unable to understand why he would sell perfectly good furniture.
"Why did you sell the furniture! Bro, are you crazy?!"
"I needed money."
"Money? What money!"
"I told you before you left. I needed money."
"... You're not selling everything because I didn't give you the bank account, are you?"
"I'm not that crazy to sell everything just because I'm upset."
"Then what's going on! What happened to make you do this?"
Seeing An Ye-seul shouting at the top of her lungs, Jungwoo calmly replied.
"To buy cryptocurrency."
"Cryptocurrency? What's that!"
"Bitcoin, a type of virtual currency."
"Virtual currency? Did I hear that wrong? Bro, are you doing some weird gambling?"
"It might be gambling to people who don't know."
"Is that... Bro, you haven't spent the money yet, right? Please say you haven't."
"Why wouldn't I? I just invested everything."
Jungwoo turned his laptop to show An Ye-seul the futures exchange site where he had invested.
"... What is this?"
"It's the chart of the cryptocurrency I invested in."
"What does this mean... Ah, never mind. I'll look."
An Ye-seul, still confused, looked at the laptop.
It was her first time seeing a chart, and she didn't understand what the red and green bars or the numbers meant.
But she wasn't completely clueless.
──────────
──────────
At the bottom of the site, Jungwoo's position was displayed.
The 'Value' and '-98%' in red clearly indicated what had happened.
"... You're down 98 percent...?"
"Probably what you think. Wow, it dropped even more in that short time. But it's interesting. I've never seen a -98% before."
"... You crazy bastard!!!!!!!"
An Ye-seul screamed, her eyes bloodshot.
"Are you really crazy! How much did you invest in this cryptocurrency or whatever! How much did you invest!"
"30 million won."
"You idiot! So, you only have 500 dollars left from 30 million won! Are you really an idiot? How could you do this without consulting me!"
"At least it's rebounded to 1,000 dollars now."
"That's not the point!!!"
"Calm down and wait. It will only go up from here."
"Idiot! Even if I don't know much about finance, I know that! A 98% loss will never recover! Who are you kidding!?"
"I'm serious. I've never been more confident. By tomorrow, the returns will be enormous..."
"Shut up! You idiot, who do you think you are to talk back! I... I must be crazy... I married you thinking you were diligent, but you're like this? You must have been hiding your true self all this time?"
"It wasn't hard. I just had a realization."
"What?"
"Cryptocurrency will definitely skyrocket! Come on, let's go!!!"
"... You're really out of your mind. How could you... Ugh, it hurts to even say. Anyway, I can't live with you like this."
"Honey, I'll make you rich with cryptocurrency. I'll make you live a life of luxury."
"I can't listen to this nonsense anymore. Hey, let's get a divorce."
The word finally came out.
Hearing his wife's demand for a divorce, Jungwoo struggled to maintain his composure.
He had to suppress his urge to laugh.
Instead, he put on a gloomy face.
"... Are you serious?"
Oh