Chapter 61

"Convoy? Are they just regular ships?"

I asked, even though I thought it was unlikely.

"No, they are warships. And large ones at that."

"Large ships, huh..."

(In this world, a warship can carry about 100 soldiers. So the problem is...)

"Where are they heading?"

"Most likely, they plan to attack the Kingdom of Lymion from the sea."

"200 warships? That means only about 20,000 soldiers can be sent, right?"

Even if the Kingdom of Lymion sent troops to the south and west, 20,000 soldiers, and even fewer capable fighters, would not be enough to conquer much territory.

"Yes, I think so too. But if they attack from both land and sea..."

(Hmm, I don't think that would be very effective...)

The risk is too high. Then...

A chill ran down my back.

"Y-You don't mean to send them to Pornezia!?"

"That's impossible! I've heard that our navy is quite strong. There's no way they would be outmatched by 200 warships, especially after a long journey!"

"But what if they don't need to win?"

"Eh? Y-You mean to delay them?"

Exactly, they don't need to win. They just need to prevent reinforcements from being sent.

"But 200! With a maximum of 25,000 soldiers! Our navy can handle that number easily."

Lisa, more excited than usual, rambled on.

"200... Are you sure it's really 200?"

"Huh? Yes, that's what I've heard."

"Then, do you know this. The information is so poorly controlled that even a maid in a duke's household can know it. Is the department responsible for their information that incompetent?"

"..."

I remembered a story I heard from a merchant. Pirate hunting. It seemed odd when I thought about it. Pirates strong enough to repeatedly defeat the navy? How strong could they be? At the time, I accepted it because it was a different world, but now, hearing this, I understand it had another purpose. They were using the guise of pirate hunting to move warships. They were gradually moving ships and people to nearby islands over five years.

"Then, we should expect at least three times that number. They will likely send elite forces, considering the possibility of battle. If they have been preparing for this war for a long time?"

Yes, they had 10 years. And they lost the last time Pornezia joined the war. So, they would naturally have prepared countermeasures.

They are likely sending a convoy more than three times the size, using the 200 warships as misinformation to confuse Pornezia.

(600 warships or more. With a crew of over 60,000. This is bad...)

Even Pornezia's navy can't win.

Or rather,

"Does your father know about this?"

"No, I don't know."

(It might all be a false alarm, but I should inform him just in case. But...)

If it turns out to be a false alarm, I'll just be making a fuss for nothing. The higher-ups will give the final orders, so I won't be punished, but it will be embarrassing if I'm wrong.

But,

(This is also a challenge...)

"Should I report it?"

I suggested.

"Understood. May I ask one more question?"

"Yes, go ahead."

"Even if it's 60,000, can't we take back the territory quickly?"

"Yes, with the right numbers and terrain, we can take it back quickly. With 60,000, we can manage with the remaining army and conscripted civilians, excluding the reinforcements. But only if it's really 60,000."

"More than that? Surely, if that many soldiers were missing, the spies would notice. And hiding 40,000 is also questionable."

"Yes, it would be very unnatural if 40,000 people suddenly disappeared. But what if it's less than 20,000?"

It's possible.

"Eh? Then..."

The story doesn't contradict itself.

"They load 40,000 onto the last 200 ships."

Of course, there would be various detailed operations, such as loading them gradually at night, but...

"That's..."

"They can move, but they will move slowly. If a storm comes, they will almost certainly capsize. Even a strong wind could delay them, making it very dangerous. But it's possible if they try. They don't need to come all the way here. They can meet up with ships stationed on nearby small islands. Or they can wait just beyond the horizon, which would take only a few hours and be almost impossible to detect. They can stop merchant ships from sailing temporarily. They can also load heavy items like armor and food onto the first 400 ships. What do you think?"

Can a plane with a 100-person limit carry 120 people? No, it can't. But it might fly. However, the risk of a crash increases. 100 people, while not 100%, is the limit that ensures safety.

"...It's possible. But..."

"Regarding the plan to retake the territory, how long does it take for a spy to deliver a secret message?"

"Rushing, it takes three days, but it might take longer."

"Then, at this moment, the follow-up forces, non-naval units, might already be on the ships, ready to come ashore."

I don't know how many warships can be built in five years, but 600 seems a bit low. Even Pornezia has 300 large warships. They can build a considerable number of new ships.

They won't fight immediately. Even if they do, it won't be a problem. With 60,000, they won't lose to a small country's navy. After dispersing them, the land units can wait.

"Then..."

"We can set up a defensive line."

Taking a few cities to establish a minimum defensive line, we can hold out and wait for reinforcements from the mainland.

We can fight or not fight. If Pornezia sends reinforcements, we can fight. If not, we can keep them at sea for a while. Gaining a month would be enough. We can take down Lymion in that time.

"Everything I said is just a hypothesis. But since it makes sense, shouldn't we report it?"

This is just a prediction. My knowledge is limited to what I read as a child, and my tactical knowledge comes from studying historical war strategies in my previous life. There are countless exceptions and uncertainties. For example, increasing the number from 200 to 220 would add 4,000 more people, a significant number in this situation. But it's pointless to talk about unknowns and detailed calculations.

"Your insight is impressive, Lord Rain. Understood. I will prepare the secret message."

She was about to leave.

"Ah, no, there's no need for a secret message. I will go to the capital directly."

I just got back and am extremely tired, but there's no choice. If they find out I came up with this plan, I'll be called to the capital anyway. It's better to avoid the extra work. Time is precious now.

"Understood. I will gather the best troops I can."

"Thank you. Please have them travel light."

"Share a horse with Kou or Mei."

"Understood."

Kou and I together weigh less than an adult.

"I will prepare. Please do the same, Lord Rain."

"Understood."

She left, closing the door.

I changed out of my sweaty clothes and put on new ones. I would like to take a bath, but it can wait.

"Phew, this is a big problem. If my prediction is wrong, I'll be a fool."

My negative thinking hasn't gone away, and I'm still afraid of failure.

I know everyone fears failure, but as someone who has made a major mistake in life, I can't help but be more afraid.

With these thoughts, I finished my preparations and went to my mother to get permission to leave.