Chapter 69

The Bear Country is Now My Territory Chapter 69

069 Two Months Later. The Collapse of the Baht / Let's Eat After It Grows

Rumors began to circulate in the world's financial markets.

The rumors suggested the insolvency of Thai financial institutions, the poor economic indicators, and the impending devaluation of the baht.

There were also rumors that the finance minister, who had disagreed with the devaluation of the baht, would be replaced.

From this point on, foreigners started to actively buy dollars and sell the baht short.

In response, the Thai government began to defend the exchange rate by using its foreign exchange reserves.

Thanks to these efforts, the baht maintained a stable state until March and April, but it eventually reached its limits.

On May 14 and 15, 1997.

After two days of intense attacks by speculative forces led by Elliott, 30% of the foreign exchange reserves, which initially amounted to $45.9 billion, were depleted.

Their attacks were relentless.

Elliott Management's specialty, the "hold and stretch" tactic, had begun.

As a result, the Thai government spent a staggering $43.4 billion on defending the exchange rate over the course of nearly a month in May.

Only $2.5 billion remained.

Ultimately, the Thai government decided to accept the recommendations of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

As the Thai economy collapsed, neighboring countries were also sucked into the storm.

The most representative countries were Indonesia, Hong Kong, Laos, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

* * *

Amazon's IPO.

Amazon was listed on the Nasdaq with an initial public offering price of $18.

A statement made by Warren Buffett, known as the sage of investing, later became a major topic of conversation.

At the annual shareholders' meeting of Berkshire Hathaway, where he serves as chairman, when asked why he didn't invest in Amazon, he replied, "Because I was too dumb."

Isn't Buffett the greatest stock investor of this era, who consistently generated profits even through the dot-com bubble and the global economic crisis?

Moreover, aren't there many other attractive stocks in the New York stock market?

One might think this, but considering Amazon's growth rate, it becomes clear why Buffett said what he did.

On that day, Nicolai, who had purchased 30% of Amazon's shares for $1 million, received a call from Jeff Bezos, just like when Yahoo went public.

- Mr. Nicolai, you are truly remarkable.

"Good day, what's this all about?"

- Both Yahoo and our Amazon, you bought into them when they were startups, didn't you?

"Blackhole Investment mainly invests in such companies."

- Even so, the hit rate can't be this high. If it were as you say, all investment firms would have made a fortune.

"Instead of saying that on such a good day, you should offer congratulations first."

- Oh, I'm sorry. I'm late. Congratulations.

"Ha ha. Thank you. Congratulations to you too."

After exchanging congratulations and finishing their conversation, Jeff Bezos spoke with a worried tone.

- As you know, the rapid rise in IT stock prices is quite concerning. And you made a lot of money from your investment in Yahoo, didn't you?

Nicolai, amused by this sudden question, smiled inwardly and then got to the point.

"Let's continue what we were talking about."

- Yes. As I mentioned to Dennis yesterday, astronomical amounts of investment are pouring into IT companies, not just in the U.S. but worldwide. Given the current trend, it doesn't seem like the momentum will easily subside.

Among the news Dennis sent earlier, there was content about this.

Nicolai, realizing that the East Asian financial crisis and the dot-com bubble were happening almost simultaneously, became more alert.

- The news says that Blackhole Investment has invested heavily in IT companies. Your image in the U.S. isn't very good. With the current steep rise in IT stock prices, more jealous media and people will emerge.

"That could happen."

Nicolai, wishing to adjust the intensity of jealousy and asking for it to be done, said:

- You should be especially careful if you come to the U.S. I think it's best not to come for a while.

"I understand. I'll be careful."

- Yes. I'll talk to you again next time.

After hanging up, Nicolai couldn't help but smile.

"What a wonderful world. Now, Amazon will grow well on its own."

Nicolai initially received shares, but when the company went public, all his shares were converted to stocks, so he now held all of them.

This meant he could sell these stocks on the market at any time.

* * *

May 27, 1997.

【Signing Ceremony of the Basic Agreement on Cooperation and Security between NATO and Russia】

The faces of world leaders gathered at the Elysée Palace in France were tense, especially that of President Clinton.

This was because Russian President Zakhhar, just before signing the agreement, suddenly demanded a modification to the text.

"Are you asking to add a clause that former Soviet republics should not join NATO for 100 years?"

"This agreement, as I understand it, is about Russia and the former Soviet republics being friends. Is that correct?"

"…Yes."

"I want to add this clause because that's what I want."

"What…?"

The British and German prime ministers, French president, and the leaders of the 16 NATO member countries present in the meeting room had puzzled expressions.

The expressions of the leaders of Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, who were about to join NATO, were no different.

"Why do you have such expressions? Is my request unreasonable?"

"That's…"

President Clinton, unable to respond, looked at President Jacques Chirac beside him, but he also remained silent.

Feeling satisfied, President Zakhhar continued calmly.

"If former Soviet republics join NATO, NATO member states will be right next to Russia. This would make it impossible for us to be friends."

"What's the problem if NATO members are next to Russia? We want to be friends, not enemies. You seem to be overreacting."

Clinton, seeking support from other leaders, awkwardly smiled, but it had no effect on President Zakhhar.

"Have you forgotten the incident when the U.S. prepared for war?"

"What do you mean?"

"In 1962, when the Soviet Union tried to build a missile base in Cuba, right next to the U.S. Cuba was a friend of the Soviet Union. Why did the U.S. prepare for war?"

President Clinton, momentarily flustered, quickly regained his composure and responded.

"…As you know, that was during the Cold War. The situation is different now. This agreement is just formal."

"If it's just formal, there's no need to sign it. Friends can get along without such formalities."

"…"

"If it's not formal, then add the clause I want. I'll sign it immediately."

For Clinton, this was a perfect deadlock, leaving him with no good options.

"I'm just trying to eliminate potential risks for both of us. Don't take it too personally."

Everyone was annoyed.

Though not exactly insults, the words felt unpleasantly like curses.

"…"

With Zakhhar's logically sound argument, the leaders were left speechless.

Zakhhar, seeing their expressions, smiled inwardly.

'Ha ha, everything Nicolai said was right.'

Thinking about what would have happened if he had signed the agreement without listening to his grandson's advice, he felt a chill.

"Why is everyone silent? You're all busy, so let's sign quickly and go."

Zakhhar pushed the document to President Clinton, placing a pen on it and urging him to make the changes quickly.

Clinton, who had led the meeting, was speechless, his mind blank as he struggled to find a solution.

After giving some time, President Zakhhar stood up, indicating he couldn't wait any longer.

"Then I'll leave. It seems our definitions of friendship differ."

Thud. Thud.

As Zakhhar walked towards the door, everyone glared at President Clinton, ignoring him.

* * *

Once Zakhhar was out of sight, the leaders gathered around President Clinton.

The first to express dissatisfaction were the leaders of Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Poland, who were about to join NATO.

"What's going on? You said it was just a matter of signing."

"This is a disaster. Now, we former Soviet republics will have to live under Russia's shadow."

"Ha, it wasn't a fluke that Yeltsin was defeated. Even though he was elected after Yeltsin's sudden death, he had been a minister of justice. We underestimated President Zakhhar."

The Polish leader and others had been mistaken.

The mastermind behind all this was Nicolai.

"If Yeltsin were the Russian president now…"

Everyone shared the same thought.

If Yeltsin were president, he would have signed it, thinking it was just formal.

"I didn't expect this. I can't say much now. Please go back, and I'll contact you separately."

With no clear plan, they sighed and left one by one.

Only President Clinton and the CIA director remained in the meeting room.

"We underestimated President Zakhhar. He defeated Yeltsin, after all."

"Today was a miserable defeat… I couldn't even refute it."

"We thought Zakhhar was smart but not this brilliant. Today, we made a big mistake. I apologize."

The CIA director admitted his mistake, but Clinton, still in shock, lacked the composure to accept it.

"Hmm… Thoroughly investigate the people around Zakhhar. There must be something we don't know."

"Understood."

For the U.S. and President Clinton, today was a day of indelible humiliation, but on a global scale, it was the opposite.

On May 27, 1997.

President Zakhhar of Russia changed history at a meeting of world leaders.

The history of the Ukrainian war, which would later cause suffering for 8 billion people.

If this war didn't happen, the only major event that would cause human suffering until then would be the 'Covid-19 pandemic'.

* * *

Nicolai and Yuri Yusupov, learning that the Thai government's foreign exchange reserves were depleted and that they had contacted the IMF, had to make a significant decision.

If Thailand borrowed money from the IMF, they would certainly have to follow the IMF's conditions.

The biggest condition would be to abandon the current fixed exchange rate system and implement a floating exchange rate system.

Thailand would reluctantly accept this, and Nicolai would have to decide the right timing to act.

"Isn't the baht's value already low enough? Why wait more?"

"Not yet. We need to wait a bit longer."

"When do you plan to act?"

"After Thailand adopts the floating exchange rate system. Elliott will likely target this time again."

"Are you planning to stab Elliott in the back?"

"No."

Initially, he planned to do so, but he changed his mind.

If he eliminated Elliott and the speculative forces now, the profit would be limited.

So, he changed his mind.

First, he would make money in Thailand, then in Indonesia and other countries, and let Elliott profit as well.

Then, he would crush them all at once.

In South Korea, the final destination.